Government intervention in sulphur and acid supply chains

I long anticipated global government intervention at the sulphur and sulphuric acid level, as it was clear from the outset that the Middle East conflict would heavily disrupt flows of oil, gas, fertilizer and petrochemicals – all part of the sulphur and sulphuric acid supply chains.

That said, it has come a little sooner than I expected. Perhaps this reflects how sulphur and sulphuric acid have become strategic raw materials for a growing range of industries over the past couple of years.

China will ban sulphuric acid exports from May through December this year. Neither smelter acid nor sulphur‑based acid can be exported from May, with the only exception being electronic‑grade sulphuric acid. China exported 4.6m t of sulphuric acid in 2025.

Another government reacting to trade disruptions and price hikes caused by the Middle East conflict is Turkey. The country, which exported 215,000t of sulphur in 2025, has banned exports of most sulphur grades from April 7 to retain the commodity for domestic fertilizer production.

We are also aware of other countries where lobbying is underway to restrict exports of these strategic raw materials. More will likely follow.

Any loss in exports translates into a tighter market and higher prices, ultimately triggering demand destruction.

We have long discussed how the affordability of metal producers outweighs that of phosphate fertilizer and basic chemical producers. As a result, any further rise in sulphur and sulphuric acid prices puts increasing pressure on lower‑affordability consumers.

Demand destruction is already emerging. In Brazil, Mosaic is beginning the process of idling and demobilising its Araxá plant, removing around 250,000t/yr of sulphur consumption. This follows Morocco’s OCP stating that it is reducing operating rates by up to 30% during 2Q as it accelerates maintenance shutdowns amid rising input costs. Foskor has already stopped MAP granulation due to a lack of ammonia stocks in South Africa. 

On paper, the Middle East conflict has lasted just six weeks.

In reality, its impact goes far beyond weeks – it will take months and years for the damage to be repaired. I will talk about this in Tongling, China next week at the Chinese Sulphuric Acid Industry Association spring meeting. 

Many of us spent years building businesses. It took six weeks for governments to intervene and completely redraw trade flows.

And far more importantly, there are countless people whose loved ones have been victims of these conflicts. Those heartbreaks will last a lifetime.

One day at a time is what I keep telling myself.

We are all in this together.